My conceptions of success are socially determined. Otherwise my conceptions would determine my conceptions of success and it's turtles all the way down.
You're the one who created that definition of success in the first place. It was a different one than 99.99% of people have anyway. Why shouldn't you choose another?
Comparisons with obviously huge outliers are inapplicable. You don't seriously buy the Horatio Alger pablum that you, me, or anybody you know has a remote chance in hell of becoming a billionaire? Such comparisons are delusional.
Also, one must consider path dependnace.
You sound like somebody I heard 5 months ago. That guy was full of bullshit. I reiterate my position, you hit a snag in life. Cry tonight. Get back to work tomorrow. Do you really think that Trump and Branson have econ PhDs? What about Jobs? BTW, Jobs has no special technical expertise or knowledge beyond you and me. These guys aren't academics but they are undoubtedly successful people. If you want to be an academic then keep on working to be an academic. If not then get that diploma and apply your knowledge and saviness to something else. That diploma will open some doors.
Thanks for your points.
Thanks for keeping us posted. Replies below.
1) No, I am not suggesting you delude yourself because it is expedient. The world is an incredibly complex place and there are way to many parts of it for us to pay attention to all of it at the same time. We have a choice as to what we focus on: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122178211966454607.html
(The WSJ slightly exaggerated some of the things he said (inserted the part about "so you don't shoot yourself in the head by the time you're 30") but the gist of the speech is right and I find it thoughtful.)
The point here is that there are several sets of facts here: a) you are not succeeding in the job market, b) your JMP is probably not going to get you into the RESTUD tour and might even be outright bad, c) there is a lot of noise in the job market, d) in the grand scheme of things, even of your own life, this is not the worst thing that could happen to you by far. And there's an e) and an f) and a g) etc...
All of these statements are true. The issue is that you're focusing your thoughts only on fact b). Why is that a useful way of using the limited resources of your brain? Surely you can see how that might not be the most useful way you can focus your energies.
2) You (may have) failed *at* something. You are not a failure. There is a massive difference.
3) You obviously have some strong quantitative skills and are generally bright. Someone will want that, trust me. Obviously, you can work a bit on the people skills. I worked with some seriously strange ducks in the private sector though so it can be done.
4) OK, if you don't want to focus on that set of facts, fine. But the "woe is me" attitude just strikes me as one that comes from taking a very narrow focus of the world. I have found it helpful to take a broader view.
5) OK, fine if you don't believe in karma. But you will at least agree it's a helpful shorthand.
In case it helps, I had a somewhat bad first JM experience too. My JMP sucked and I knew it. I couldn't even fake enthusiasm for it. I had only one offer at a place that was quite literally the lowest ranked school I applied to. I took it. Although my JMP sucked I have since written a few papers that I know are very good. So one bad paper does not a bad economist make IMHO.
Again, please keep us posted.
OP, most of us sympathize. Many of us have been there, or somewhere similar.
All people are saying is apply Bellman's principle. I understand that's not useful at the moment. But next week it will be.
Your conceptions of success are determined by your thoughts, not society. And you control your thoughts. Right now, your thoughts are not rational. You have no perspective. You are overwhelmed by a temporary failure. The danger is that you fall into that cycle of thinking, because it can take years to climb back out.
I am everyone trying to give encouraging advice right now seem like a bunch of pollyannas to you right now. But I believe that some of it is good insight coming from experiences of similar worthlessness or failure. And if this happens to be your lowest point in your life, it certainly isn't your first brush with failure. (And if it is the worst, there is certainly no trivializing it, but in the grand scheme of things you have to admit things are not that bad.)
I like 658c's perspective on it - at the end of the day, whether or not "karma" means anything at all, doing good things for other people reminds us what really makes us "useful" and, to that end, satisfied with our lives. As far as the job market goes, and our education, the main thing is that we can earn a decent living. To do this effectively, it helps if we happen to enjoy it. (And if enjoying our jobs involves building model economies, then it's nice that we can enjoy our toys. But unlike many other professions, I doubt any of us really have a good gauge on the actual "importance" of our work to the wellbeing of others. Our only guide is our level of enjoyment.) Hopefully most of us who spend years in grad school eventually find work that fit these two criteria. But the real measure of our success in life will not be stock of shitty papers we write, but the positive impact we have on others. The rest is just about finding a reasonable degree of satisfaction in our careers, and it seems to be that you're still in an excellent position to achieve this, even if it is not in academia.
Demand side: It is way too early for you to be saying that you are not going to get anything in the market. You wrote that you had some good interviews. Not much has happened with lower ranked schools yet. So, stop being so self-defeating, yet.
I have some students in the market who are in the same situation as you and they are just standing tall, waiting for things to happen. We are also in the market and we have not even had any flyouts yet.
See if you can learn from your mistakes from this past flyout and try to do better in the next ones. If you get too nervous, there are several tricks you can do, but I can't write it here over the internet. just google stage fright tips or medication, etc. Focus on getting better at interviews and at giving seminars for the next opportunities.
You think that is brave of you to say that you are a failure. It is not. I learned at a young age that when life does not give you something, YOU TAKE IT. Go for it. The world is going to try to put you down. You are the only person who can lift yourself up. This is brave. If you do not believe in yourself, you have no business being in a competitive setting. I can tell that you are competitive by the intensity of the frustration you are feeling -- it is a sign that you have a lot of inner strength. Use it for your own good, not to defeat yourself.
Never thought I'd write this on EJMR: Thanks for the helpful comments and perspectives. They've helped to calm me down a bit, though I'm still very upset, angry, frustrated, and feeling like a failure. Nice to have a place where people have the same experiences (or at least are familiar with them).
Comparisons with obviously huge outliers are inapplicable. You don't seriously buy the Horatio Alger pablum that you, me, or anybody you know has a remote chance in hell of becoming a billionaire? Such comparisons are delusional.
OK, well Gandhi and Mother Teresa of Calcutta were also successes. Let me give you some shocking info, Dolph Lundgren has a masters and was getting a PhD at MIT. Success is what you want it to be. If you want to be an academic then work for it. If you have other interests, then go for it.
OK your depressing so lets get take some readings from Randy Pausch:
-Have something to bring to the table, because that will make you more welcomed.
-The brick walls are there for a reason. The brick walls are not there to keep us out; the brick walls are there to give us a chance to show how badly we want something. The brick walls are there to stop the people who don't want it badly enough. They are there to stop the other people!
-Experience is what you get when you didn't get what you wanted.
-When you see yourself doing something badly and nobody's bothering to tell you anymore, that's a very bad place to be. Your critics are the ones telling you they still love you and care.
-Wait long enough and people will surprise and impress you. He said, when you are pissed off at somebody, and you're angry at them, you just haven't given them enough time. Just give them a little more time — and they'll almost always impress you. And that really stuck with me. I think he's absolutely right on that one.
-The best way to teach somebody something is to have them think they're learning something else.
-Never lose the child-like wonder. It's just too important. It's what drives us.
-Focus on other people, not on yourself.
-Don't complain; just work harder.
-Be good at something. It makes you valuable.
I blame this feeling partially on society. When you are growing up, what do you hear? Most often it is "you can be whatever you want to be." This is not true, yet it is drilled into our heads for years. It is very depressing when you finally start to realize that you won't be the next Coase, Bernstein, Buffett, Faulkner, etc. After all, these heights of excellence are what we have been told to aspire to. It takes some realization to figure out that even if you aren't the next Coase, life isn't so bad.
If I could be anything in life, it probably wouldn't be economist. In fact I know it wouldn't be economist. But I am pretty good at writing papers, I have an interest in economics, and I have the intellectual skills to do moderately well in this area. My life is pretty good if you consider what some other people are going through, so I try and enjoy it. Try and do the same OP.
As I wrote in another thread,
Guys, calm down. It is too early in the market for you guys to freak out. When I was in the market over 15 years ago, there was no EJMR or much of internet yet. We did not talk much to other graduate students about their interviews or flyouts. All I know was what I got. So I did not compare myself to anyone. My flyouts came mostly in February and March, and in the end I got several offers -- end of February and in March. This is because a lot is going on, and many places do not move very fast (although some do).
Here we are in January and you guys are getting all worked up. Chill out. In January I had absolutely nothing and was focusing in getting my slides done. I am full at a top 30 now.
Try to focus your time and attention in something else other than the market for now.