Post <blockquote><blockquote><blockquote>It’s very simple. Schools have a limited number of lines. Some schools might choose to hire two in one year and zero the next. This often happens when the current cohort is perceived to be stronger than the upcoming one (as happened last year). Many schools decided to do their hiring during the strong market, and don’t have much appetite now. <blockquote> Why would the star group last year affect hiring at the top level this year? </blockquote></blockquote> You're right, your answer is very simple. It's actually too simple to be right because it's based on a very narrow partial equilibrium. Like I said, every year, there are seasoned people moving for a variety of reasons alongside rookies. Seasoned people who leave can be replaced through the hiring process. So when you say that "many schools decided to do their hiring during the strong market, and don’t have much appetite now," you're assuming that at many schools, there were zero seasoned departures last year and thus no vacancies at those schools this year. Similarly, you're also assuming that there's no top school out there that (1) didn't hire last year, but (2) is hiring this year. So going beyond a very narrow partial equilibrium analysis should make it clear that it isn't so obvious that the star group last year affects hiring at the top level this year. </blockquote> Holy s**t this is some bad thinking lol</blockquote>

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