http://lapaul.org/papers/choosing-child-draft.pdf
How can you ever determine the expected value of a child when you have never had one?? HOW?!?
The paper can be critiqued in six words: Expected value is measured with error.
Gelman has already critiqued this:
http://andrewgelman.com/2013/03/11/yes-the-decision-to-try-or-not-to-have-a-child-can-be-made-rationally/
(The comments are interesting too; the author attempts a defense of sorts)
Doesn't do a very good job, though. LOL!