Today’s ruling is his ticket to a Nobel
If Levitt is right, crime is going to skyrocket 15 years from now
-
It has already been skyrocketing for a year or two now and as things take a downturn its not going to get better for the next 2-5 years. So it is assured that Levitt's next paper is going to forget about this lag and is going to once again say that there is a correlation and pretend that its an econ paper.
-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legalized_abortion_and_crime_effect
In 2020 a study by Donohue and Levitt was published in American Law and Economics Review to review the predictions of the original 2001 paper. Overall the authors concluded that the predictions did hold up with strong effects. "We estimate that crime fell roughly 20% between 1997 and 2014 due to legalized abortion. The cumulative impact of legalized abortion on crime is roughly 45%, accounting for a very substantial portion of the roughly 50-55% overall decline from the peak of crime in the early 1990s."