What percent of papers in fenance are eventually published?
Here is my thought process: In fenance, there exists three A journals, each accepting say 10% of submitted papers. Assume there are two backup journals, each accepting say 15% of submitted papers. Assuming rejected papers are modified and sent to another journal, and probability of acceptance is independent journal to journal, half (.9*.9*.9*.85*.85) of papers are eventually published in a "top five". But a paper that is shit at one journal is more likely to be shit at the next journal, and some papers are abandoned, so it's what, maybe 25% of written papers make top five. How could this estimate be improved? Please thumbs up (down) if this thought process is ballpark correct (dogshit).