And what if one is 59. This is no time to set up an RDD design. No way on gawd's green earth am I doing f2f in the fall. I'll take a leave if I have to, but I'm not getting in a room with a bunch of irresponsible students.
Please do, I want to keep my summer money! Just don't insist on being paid is all we ask.
I just learned I am teaching two f2f classes this fall. The classroom is small and not properly ventilated. I am not sure any distancing will help, especially given back-to-back classes. I am freaking out with anxiety. How to stay safe in a petri dish? Will wearing a mask really help?
I am in NY and worried about the same thing. I am not old, but I lost a close family member to covid-19 and I do not think my family can take the stress of me being on campus. I hope that my school will go remote in the fall.
The risks are not just about death rates. There are other possible long-term consequences. If you survive it does not guarantee you remain healthy. My friend can hardly work without stopping his breath now; he is in his mid-40s and was overall healthy prior to covid. I am not in any health risk group but who is going to raise my kids if something happens to me? My wife is a stay-at home parent. I am not a military or a fire-fighter; I did not sign up for a life-threatening but non-essential situations as I can still produce reasonable quality on-line teaching. However, my school's administration does not give me any choice and did not even bother to ask me about my attitudes. It feels like I am simply a disposable resource for them.
Easy to see that:
-total lockdown bad
-all the way back to normal bad
-masks good
-social distance good
-over 60 or so, be very, very careful
But, we still don't know enough about long term consequences to know how lax to be with those under 60ish. There is reason to think the probability of long term complications in the young and otherwise healthy may not be trivially small. That does not justify lockdown forever. But I do think it justifies working remotely if it is easy to do until we know more, since the cost is not that high.
So, from a social point of view (not the individual school), is there really any way that face to face passes a benefit-cost test even for those under 60?
This is sensible.
To answer your final question "Is there any way..." We know that mortality risk of healthly people under 60 is extremely low. Effectively 0%. This is what both Euro data and US CDC data shows.
But are there non-fatal but important long-term consequences, e.g. to the lungs? If this is a real thing, this outcome should be showing itself in data rather than anecdotes soon one way or the other.
...
But are there non-fatal but important long-term consequences, e.g. to the lungs? If this is a real thing, this outcome should be showing itself in data rather than anecdotes soon one way or the other.
Clearly we should watch the data and learn what we can as best we can. But I think "long term" and "showing itself in data rather than anecdotes soon" are by definition mutually exclusive. So it will be just a slightly educated guess by Fall 2020. And since it is so, I tend to think if someone can work remotely in Fall 2020 without great productivity loss, and want to work remotely, they probably should.
The risks are not just about death rates. There are other possible long-term consequences. If you survive it does not guarantee you remain healthy. My friend can hardly work without stopping his breath now; he is in his mid-40s and was overall healthy prior to covid. I am not in any health risk group but who is going to raise my kids if something happens to me? My wife is a stay-at home parent. I am not a military or a fire-fighter; I did not sign up for a life-threatening but non-essential situations as I can still produce reasonable quality on-line teaching. However, my school's administration does not give me any choice and did not even bother to ask me about my attitudes. It feels like I am simply a disposable resource for them.
Lol you've never heard about life insurance?
My college’s lawyers have come to the conclusion that forcing people to teach f2f would be in violation of OSHA regulations, and would open it up to massive lawsuits. So no f2f unless the prof agrees to it and signs a disclaimer.
I just learned I am teaching two f2f classes this fall. The classroom is small and not properly ventilated. I am not sure any distancing will help, especially given back-to-back classes. I am freaking out with anxiety. How to stay safe in a petri dish? Will wearing a mask really help?
Effectively 0% under 60? Where’s the data that makes you confidence baout that assessment? Is that conditional on no comorbidities? If not, seems unlikly, given that over half the US population is overweight (ie. has at least one comorbidity).
Easy to see that:
-total lockdown bad
-all the way back to normal bad
-masks good
-social distance good
-over 60 or so, be very, very careful
But, we still don't know enough about long term consequences to know how lax to be with those under 60ish. There is reason to think the probability of long term complications in the young and otherwise healthy may not be trivially small. That does not justify lockdown forever. But I do think it justifies working remotely if it is easy to do until we know more, since the cost is not that high.
So, from a social point of view (not the individual school), is there really any way that face to face passes a benefit-cost test even for those under 60?This is sensible.
To answer your final question "Is there any way..." We know that mortality risk of healthly people under 60 is extremely low. Effectively 0%. This is what both Euro data and US CDC data shows.
But are there non-fatal but important long-term consequences, e.g. to the lungs? If this is a real thing, this outcome should be showing itself in data rather than anecdotes soon one way or the other.
Life insurance will not raise my kids. They need a healthy and involved dad.
If you live in fear of this virus despite the extensive data showing it hardly affects people under 50, I can't imagine you're a good influence on your kids. They'll be better off without you.
One thing to keep in mind for everyone on all sides of this is that fall semester is 3 months away.
In that time the pandemic may have changed in scope, we may have learned more about the virus, and we may have developed capabilities to help prevent the spread of or the damage from the virus.
One thing to keep in mind for everyone on all sides of this is that fall semester is 3 months away.
In that time the pandemic may have changed in scope, we may have learned more about the virus, and we may have developed capabilities to help prevent the spread of or the damage from the virus.
True. But many schools (mine included) have a deadline of July 1 to announce their decision.
@8d37
CDC has the data. Let's just take for example my age bracket 35-44. Between Feb 1 and May 16, we saw 1,186 US deaths attributed to COVID. That's out of 40 million folks, for a probability of .0000297. Far less than a semester's worth of heart attack, cancer, driving risk, etc. Just not an important determinant of mortality for this age group.
Fun fact: one of those 1186 was the Colorado guy with a blood alcohol content of .55% at the time of his death. That is equivalent to drinking 19 beers in two hours.