The corporate elite have anticipated that populist sentiment could lead to high skill immigration restrictions (like an end to the H-1B program) and have preemptively found a work around in "nearshoring". Even if T were to win the 2024 election and subsequently expe1 all of the H-1Bs, they would just move to Canada, Mexico, Costa Rica, or the Caribbean and work remotely from there from the same or close-by time zones. The development of remote work technology has made unilateral immigration policy less relevant for medium and high skilled occupations. With the exception of a few highly interactive companies that need spillovers from serendipitous face-to-face encounters, all that really matters is time and language compatibility and tax policy. This means that American high skill wages will gradually decline in real terms and converge towards the worldwide average high skill labor price (with some remaining premium due to mobility costs and the relative high quality of American universities).
The Corporate Elite Have An Ace Up Their Sleeve in Case of an H-1B Ban
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Low skill immigratiom bans would matter a lot more, by contrast, since many low skill jobs are physical in nature and obviously can't be done remotely. What is therefore likely is a compression in the low skill-high skill wage gap and an increase in the wealth gap between the high skilled but wage-reliant upper middle class and the investment-reliant upper class.
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That's fine. At least those Indian coders would not get H1b, therefore no green card and citizenship. If they want to stay in Mexico and work remotely from there the rest of their life, fine with me.
And yes, in that scenario, the wages of American tech workers will decline. But they are currently overpaid anyway.
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A further implication of this low skill-high skill wage gap compression will be a reduction in the US ROI from higher education. In the long run this will reduce the derived demand for education, in turn reducing US professor per-student taught salaries at all but the most elite schools.
Low skill immigration bans would matter a lot more, by contrast, since many low skill jobs are physical in nature and obviously can't be done remotely. What is therefore likely is a compression in the low skill-high skill wage gap and an increase in the wealth gap between the high skilled but wage-reliant upper middle class and the investment-reliant upper class.
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That's fine. At least those Indian coders would not get H1b, therefore no green card and citizenship. If they want to stay in Mexico and work remotely from there the rest of their life, fine with me.
And yes, in that scenario, the wages of American tech workers will decline. But they are currently overpaid anyway.U.S. citizenship without the high salaries is useless. What do we have here? A non-zero chance to get killed in a mass shooting?
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There is nothing that ChatGPT can't do to replace all H1B Mumbai coders.
And it doesn't need a visa.ChatGPT is sheet. Look at the responses here. Always boring, like a corporate PR department.
That's because when 1diots ask it questions it replies like an 1diot.
If you ask it to write a code on your data doing something in general RA terms it will produce that code, which is going to be MUCH better than anything done in Mumbai.
So, ye, it will replace all those RAs doing trivial things in Stata.
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There is nothing that ChatGPT can't do to replace all H1B Mumbai coders.
And it doesn't need a visa.ChatGPT is sheet. Look at the responses here. Always boring, like a corporate PR department.
That's because when 1diots ask it questions it replies like an 1diot.
If you ask it to write a code on your data doing something in general RA terms it will produce that code, which is going to be MUCH better than anything done in Mumbai.
So, ye, it will replace all those RAs doing trivial things in Stata.Curious why you are singling out Mumbai. I assume computer generated code could be better than anything done in San Francisco.