Year 2, after prelims: When I graduate I will have 5 or 6 top 5 pubs! And a tenured offer from MIT or Harvard! Everything I write is pure f*cking gold.
Year 3: I'm going to graduate and have 1 or 2 top 5 pubs. And a tenured offer from a top 15 school. Even the worst of my papers belong in a top field journal.
Year 4: I'm going to graduate and have 1 or 2 top field pubs. When I go on the market I will get a ton of interviews and a job at a top 40 department. Even my worst papers deserve publication in Economics Letters.
Year 6, on the market: F*ck.