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• Thread: 112 Goods vs 55 No Goods

1. Economist
   84de
   

   Yes, and the DP sample, which the Stanford prof also adduced to support the case made by the OP, now has a CFR of 1.4%, with 15 still critical, and 123 still I’ll— so the only way for the CFR of the DP sample is up...

   " If our surmise of six million cases is accurate, that’s a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death."
   As others have pointed out elsewhere, more than 0.01% of the entire Italian population has already died and the total is still rising. This can't plausibly be correct. And realistically, can't even be the right order of magnitude.
   

   Of course, the DP population is older than the US and the CFR appears to increase dramatically with age. So the CFR of DP being 1.5 percent is not inconsistent with the hypothesis that the true CFR is an order of magnitude lower.
   The strong argument against OP is the flu does not usually make Italy run out of space in their morgues....

   1 week ago # QUOTE 1 Good 0 No Good !

2. Economist
   9c60
   

   My guess is the DP developed herd immunity

   1 week ago # QUOTE 0 Good 0 No Good !

3. Economist
   2f1c
   

   1/3 of the DP sample were crew, therefore younger. Also cruise ship vacationers tend to be wealthier and healthier than their peers. And lastly, they all had access to top notch medical care, which won’t be available to most who get sick elsewhere. All these factors dampen the age effect you adduce.

   Lastly, 1.4% is a snapshot, not a % of resolved cases. 123 are still sick and 15 in ICU.

   Yes, and the DP sample, which the Stanford prof also adduced to support the case made by the OP, now has a CFR of 1.4%, with 15 still critical, and 123 still I’ll— so the only way for the CFR of the DP sample is up...

   " If our surmise of six million cases is accurate, that’s a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death."
   As others have pointed out elsewhere, more than 0.01% of the entire Italian population has already died and the total is still rising. This can't plausibly be correct. And realistically, can't even be the right order of magnitude.
   

   Of course, the DP population is older than the US and the CFR appears to increase dramatically with age. So the CFR of DP being 1.5 percent is not inconsistent with the hypothesis that the true CFR is an order of magnitude lower.
   The strong argument against OP is the flu does not usually make Italy run out of space in their morgues....

   1 week ago # QUOTE 0 Good 0 No Good !

4. Economist
   21c7
   

   Stanford profs to toilet. Remind us the last time makeshift morgues were constructed for those dying of flu.

   At this point, the focus on CFR is nonsensical. What's known e.g. from Italy is that the *total* number of critical hospitalizations and deaths will be significant and of a higher order of magnitude than flu.

   1 week ago # QUOTE 0 Good 1 No Good !

5. Economist
   c8c7
   

   It's just the flu, bro.

   Turns out bro was right.

   1 week ago # QUOTE 0 Good 0 No Good !

6. Economist
   2f1c
   

   Bro’s a buffoon bro

   It's just the flu, bro.
   Turns out bro was right.

   1 week ago # QUOTE 0 Good 1 No Good !

7. Economist
   3698
   

   Stanford profs to toilet. Remind us the last time makeshift morgues were constructed for those dying of flu.
   At this point, the focus on CFR is nonsensical. What's known e.g. from Italy is that the *total* number of critical hospitalizations and deaths will be significant and of a higher order of magnitude than flu.

   Media push this propaganda and you fell for it? What LRM do you attend?

   1 week ago # QUOTE 1 Good 1 No Good !

8. Economist
   4924
   

   1/3 of the DP sample were crew, therefore younger. Also cruise ship vacationers tend to be wealthier and healthier than their peers. And lastly, they all had access to top notch medical care, which won’t be available to most who get sick elsewhere. All these factors dampen the age effect you adduce.
   Lastly, 1.4% is a snapshot, not a % of resolved cases. 123 are still sick and 15 in ICU.

   The DP tests could have given a lot of false negatives. This might be the reason why you couldn't leave the isolation unit in Japan unless you had two negative tests two days in a row. Early tests for COVID seem to be very unreliable which is why the CDC invented their own. The DP denominator is a worst case. If the test had 50% false negatives because it didn't pick up people whose immune systems kicked the virus right out the CFR is down to 0.7% and that's with an older population.

   We don't know the demographics and health conditions of those who died on the DP. The average age of people on the DP was 58.

   DP outcomes also happened early on before the hydrochloroquine and azithromycin cocktail was developed. We don't know how effective it will be but anecdotal evidence says it might be helpful.

   This is for sure much worse than the flu. True CFR probably close to 0.5% if I had to guess.

   1 week ago # QUOTE 3 Good 0 No Good !

9. Economist
   2a50
   

   1/3 of the DP sample were crew, therefore younger. Also cruise ship vacationers tend to be wealthier and healthier than their peers. And lastly, they all had access to top notch medical care, which won’t be available to most who get sick elsewhere. All these factors dampen the age effect you adduce.
   Lastly, 1.4% is a snapshot, not a % of resolved cases. 123 are still sick and 15 in ICU.

   The DP tests could have given a lot of false negatives. This might be the reason why you couldn't leave the isolation unit in Japan unless you had two negative tests two days in a row. Early tests for COVID seem to be very unreliable which is why the CDC invented their own. The DP denominator is a worst case. If the test had 50% false negatives because it didn't pick up people whose immune systems kicked the virus right out the CFR is down to 0.7% and that's with an older population.
   We don't know the demographics and health conditions of those who died on the DP. The average age of people on the DP was 58.
   DP outcomes also happened early on before the hydrochloroquine and azithromycin cocktail was developed. We don't know how effective it will be but anecdotal evidence says it might be helpful.
   This is for sure much worse than the flu. True CFR probably close to 0.5% if I had to guess.

   Italy has had cfr of up to 1% from the regular flu in recent years.

   1 week ago # QUOTE 1 Good 0 No Good !

10. Economist
    9718
    

    Stanford profs to toilet. Remind us the last time makeshift morgues were constructed for those dying of flu.
    At this point, the focus on CFR is nonsensical. What's known e.g. from Italy is that the *total* number of critical hospitalizations and deaths will be significant and of a higher order of magnitude than flu.

    Media push this propaganda and you fell for it? What LRM do you attend?

    https://www.unz.com/akarlin/dulce-et-decorum-est-pro-gdp-mori/

    Corona-Chan wins in the end.

    1 week ago # QUOTE 0 Good 0 No Good !

11. Economist
    afab
    

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/25/dhs-briefing-nyc-morgues-near-capacity-148259

    New York City has not dealt with mass casualties at the rate as Covid-19 in recent memory, however.

    “All hospitals within the city tend to have small morgue spaces, so it’s possible that with the capacity of hospitals in New York City, there may be an expectation … that they’ll run out of morgue space,” Worthy-Davis added.

    1 week ago # QUOTE 0 Good 0 No Good !

12. Economist
    1556
    

    Everyone here is barking up the wrong tree: the reason for the lockdowns in China and Europe are the high hospitalization rates, not the death rate. COVID-19 causes pneumonia way more often then flu.

    European governments got one by one panicked into lockdown once they saw the healthcare system was getting overwhelmed. Before that it was all also “look at the death rate, it’s just a bad flu” everywhere in Europe.

    Sad to see people make the same mistake out of ignorance. I fully expect the same to happen now in the US, see in a week or two how’s it going in the hospitals ...

    1 week ago # QUOTE 2 Good 1 No Good !

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